THE DAILY DRUCKER : Shrinking of the Younger Population

The next society will be with us shortly.

In the developed countries, the dominant factor in the next society will be something to which most people are only just beginning to pay attention: the rapid growth of the older population and the rapid shrinking of the younger generation. The shrinking of the younger population will cause an even greater upheaval than the growing number of older people, if only because nothing like this has happened since the dying centuries of the Roman Empire. In every single developed country, but also in China and Brazil, the birth rate is now well below the replacement rate of 2.2 live births per woman of reproductive age. Politically, this means that immigration will become an important – and highly divisive – issue in all rich countries. It will cut across all traditional political alignments. Economically, the decline in the younger population will change markets in fundamental ways. Growth in family formation has been the driving force of all domestic markets in the developed world, but the rate of family formation is certain to fall steadily unless bolstered by large-scale immigration of younger people.

Action point: Determine whether your organisation is betting on young people, older people, or immigrants. Make sure you have plan for the gradual decrease in the youth market and the increase in newcomers and the aged.

Managing the Next Society

Extracted from
Peter Drucker’s book
The Daily Drucker.

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