All ethnic populations are projected to grow in number between 2013 and 2038, Stats NZ says.
The broad Asian ethnic group will increase the most over the period. This group’s population is projected to rise from 540,000 in 2013 to 1.2 – 1.4 million in 2038. The Pacific ethnic group is also projected to rise significantly, from 340,000 in 2013 to 530,000 – 650,000 in 2038.
The Māori population is projected to surpass 1 million by 2038, with growth in all regions.
New Zealand’s total population is projected to grow from 4.4 million in 2013 to 5.2 – 6.3 million in 2038. Auckland region’s population is projected to exceed 2 million in the early 2030s, up from 1.5 million in 2013.
“The ‘European or Other’ population is growing, but not as fast as other ethnic populations,” population statistics senior manager Peter Dolan says in a media release.
“The Māori, Asian, and Pacific populations are growing faster because of their younger age structures – combined with higher birth rates or migration.”
The broad Asian ethnic group’s share is projected to be higher than the Māori ethnic share by 2023, and is projected to be 22 percent of the total population by 2038. The Māori ethnic share is projected to rise to 18 percent by 2038.
Despite the ‘European or Other’ ethnic group’s population rising from 3.3 million in 2013 to 3.6 – 4.0 million in 2038, the ethnic share of this group is projected to fall from 75 percent of New Zealand’s population in 2013 to 66 percent in 2038.
The proportion of New Zealanders identifying with Māori, Asian, and Pacific ethnicities is projected to rise in all 16 regions over the same period. In contrast, the ‘European or Other’ ethnic share is projected to fall in 14 of the 16 regions over the 2013–38 period.
