In Box: NZ – a good place to be in 2050

We might feel we’re doing it hard in New Zealand, but not only is it one of the best places in the world to be born in 2013, but we’re also well-positioned for the mega-shifts taking place between now and 2050.
Executive editor of The Economist, Dr Daniel Franklin, was keynote speaker at the ‘new New Zealand Forum’, an event organised in Auckland in December by Massey University in partnership with Westpac. He is also editor of Megachange: The World in 2050 (published March 2012) and The World in 2013, an Economist annual special issue.
He noted that New Zealand was ranked number seven out of 80 countries assessed by The Economist in its annual where-to-be-born index. Switzerland was ranked first, Australia second and Nigeria last.
He spoke both about short-term forecasts for the year ahead and the longer-term megatrends that will define humanity’s experience of life on the planet mid-century.
His optimism for New Zealand was based largely on two factors; our geographical location close to Asia, “where lot of the economic action is going to be”, and our large agricultural sector in world that will need to feed nine billion people. Agri-food presented huge opportunity not only for trade in food products but also for exporting agri-food technology, Franklin said.
And although there might be climate change complications, New Zealand’s environment was “relatively enviable” and that “raises the issues of managing that great heritage well”. Being an English-speaking nation delivered another advantage.
“English is probably going to continue to be the main language spoken, despite the rise of China, and New Zealand’s links through the Commonwealth to Africa will be important.” There will be huge growth in Africa – both in population and the continent’s economy. Nigeria for example, could become the world’s third largest economy, after China and India, by 2050.
In the space of 100 years there will have been complete reversal of population relativities between Europe and Africa. In 1950 Europe had more than one fifth of the world’s population and Africa less than one tenth. Now they are more or less the same. By 2050 Africa will have more than one fifth of the world’s population and Europe will have less than one tenth. One in two of the extra two billion inhabitants that will swell the world’s population to nine billion over the next four decades will be in Africa.
The Economist predicts that China will overtake the US as the world’s biggest economy in 2018 – which Franklin said would cause much soul-searching in the US.
The next period in the world’s economic history would be “great levelling”, he believed. Wealth inequality had been rising but policymakers would respond by making the rich pay fairer share to better balance the distribution of wealth. With the rise of the third world, wealth distribution on global scale would become less unequal.
Amongst the trends and influences he identified for the year ahead was the “new world order” dominated by Obama in the White House, Angela Merkel facing voters (and currently leading in the polls) in Germany, and new, apparently politically conservative leader in China in Xi Jinping.
‘People power’ – popular movements from the streets – would continue to grow; in technology the world would go mainly mobile; solar power would strengthen its position against fossil fuels; the outlook for business was still generally negative but less gloomy than in 2012; and growth would be much faster in emerging nations (5.8 percent) compared with the rich first world (1.6 percent);
Dr Franklin said that with good management and the right policies New Zealand could come through the current period of turbulent change in good shape. His main advice to New Zealand was to stay open – to trade, to other people and cultures, and to ideas. M